Models, Game Theory, and Policy

Opens May 6th 2021 from Colorado warning this is a corona video framed around data, models, and game theory, since crypto's expertise is getting people to act through incentives, as Bitcoin went from a single miner to mining factories in Mongolia and Georgia.

Shares an Associated Press article on Biden aiming to vaccinate 70 percent of Americans by July 4th and pulls up CDC data tracking breakthrough covid cases after full vaccination.

95 million fully vaccinated with only 9245 reported breakthrough infections, 835 hospitalizations, and 132 deaths, arguing that is statistically insignificant.

Points to Israeli data from Bloomberg where at 57.9 percent full vaccination cases fell from about 1000 per million in January to 8 by May 5th.

Cites an ECDC European Union technical report on SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk that hedges with disclaimers but suggests a relevant effect against transmission.

Cites a Science paper on CD8 and CD4 T lymphocytes showing 90 percent still have a strong immune response five months after infection, so the vaccinated carry low viral load and rarely spread it.

Frames the point as game theory: with a 70 percent goal you either rely on goodwill or use a stick or a carrot, and mask mandates prove authorities do not trust voluntary compliance.

Argues the chance of catching corona from a vaccinated person is far lower than from an unvaccinated one, citing observational nasopharyngeal swab studies from Denmark and the EU, and calls any scientist claiming otherwise a liar.

Asks why not simply tell Americans that getting vaccinated ends restrictions for them, trading a high-risk group for a much lower-risk one and releasing pent-up demand from covid fatigue.

Contrasts Israel, where nothing changed after vaccination and daily doses collapsed from over 100000 to 8478, with the US falling from over 3 million to 2.1 million daily doses.

Calls the claim that everyone's covid death risk is equal a great lie, since the elderly and risk groups were vaccinated first so the remaining unvaccinated are largely the young and low-risk.

Curves are capping everywhere except tiny places like Seychelles and Bhutan, and in a diverse hesitant country you will not exceed 50 to 60 percent without an incentive, which is exactly what the crypto industry engineers daily around an honest majority.

Frames public health as a group-average discipline preferring a cheap 70 percent accurate at-home test over a perfect 100-dollar doctor test, since catching seven of ten cases weekly manages a pandemic better.

Argues variants exist everywhere yet breakthroughs stay rare, and an immune system reset by every mutation would have wiped out humanity long ago, so current vaccines suffice while Moderna and Pfizer build boosters linked to the flu regimen.

Bets the 70 percent goalpost will not be reached without incentives or heavy-handed government punishment, criticizing how everyone became an armchair immunologist overnight.

Recounts posting a UK PhD's meta-analysis of 13 studies on an unnamed drug efficacious against covid that got him labeled false news, defending meta-analysis as the tool of public health alongside vitamin D.

As a global company operating in Africa bad policy is life or death in India, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda, and he cannot get a clear answer why Novavax stays unapproved despite safe and efficacious data.

Criticizes pulling Johnson and Johnson over one-in-a-million blood clots then slapping on a warning label that spiked hesitancy, instead of shipping doses to India where thousands die daily.

Attacks the lack of intellectual honesty and the National Park Service requiring masks outdoors in a forest, calling it madness that keeps damaging the developing world.

Cites a New York Times search on covid starvation projecting 200 million pushed into acute hunger and millions of children and elderly starving from the economic shutdown, not from farmers catching covid.

Blames India's crisis on public health failures in quarantine and contact tracing despite being a top vaccine manufacturer, and faults global policy, the WHO, and how vaccines are bought.

Asks why no League-of-Nations buy-one-donate-one vaccine mandate was set, why Pfizer charges 35 dollars a dose for a taxpayer-funded orphan drug, and why vaccines were not nationalized and open-sourced.

Compares emergency covid measures to how 9/11 permanently changed airport security and built a costly surveillance state that never went away, predicting these measures will likewise persist.

Shares that he took both Pfizer doses and takes vitamin D, zinc, cordyceps, and reishi mushrooms, never testing positive despite household exposure, yet is still treated as contaminated.

Reports his labs, fertility, and sperm count unchanged with a biological age of 28 versus 33, mocking anti-vaxxer claims of unquantifiable future harm and the framing that even the vaccinated stay a threat.

With over 1.21 billion cases worldwide it cannot be as deadly as claimed, and faults the social justice crowd for not caring that millions in the developing world will starve.

Warns of enormous psychological trauma to children denied education and socialization, rising suicide, domestic violence, and family stress, plus decaying faith in institutions.

Challenges critics to read Apollo's Arrow, take the MIT covid course, and read the FDA emergency-use reports before trolling, demanding intellectual honesty about proportionality.

Asks physicians whether they were equally alarmed by tuberculosis or HIV, and whether the inflation and trillions printed are worth this hill to die on when the fix is just solving the incentive problem.

Asks what the alternative goalposts are if 70 percent stalls like Israel at 57, warning against firing the unvaccinated, red-vest pariah systems, higher taxes, or a two-tiered society.

Argues natural infection is nature's vaccine, riskier but the same principle, so recovered people should not be discriminated against, and questions where the coercion threshold ends.

Pushes the logic to absurdity, asking if forced institutionalization of statistically violent sociopaths would follow once society accepts compelling people deemed a medical risk.

Cowardly policymakers manipulated by media fear porn ignore that Pfizer's 94 percent efficacy beats a miracle versus 50 percent flu vaccines, while headlines dwell on 132 breakthrough deaths.

Explains why Bitcoin is worth a trillion dollars and crypto is soaring: people recognize sound fixed monetary policy you cannot print, unlike a dollar where the Fed can inject six trillion.

Warns money-printing lets the rich like him borrow at 0.7 percent and buy inflation-resistant assets first while ordinary paychecks absorb the hit, calling the policy unsustainable.

Long covid as the Gulf War syndrome of his generation, noting deaths are shifting from the developed to the developing world while plummeting among the vaccinated.

Argues the only policy goal should be 70 percent vaccination for herd immunity plus yearly boosters, with targeted lockdowns of nursing homes and hospitals during hot zones rather than society-wide restrictions.

There is no settled science behind mandate advocates when the best EU report admits uncertainty, so the only real question is how to incentivize a vaccinated population.

Recommends Scott Page's Model Thinking course on Coursera and its companion book covering tipping points, Markov processes, and decision models, plus free MIT immunology courses and Apollo's Arrow.

Rejects covid as a manufactured Bilderberg cabal plot but condemns coupling a universal health crisis to political goals like the Green New Deal, taxes, or universal healthcare.

Warns a vaccine passport will expand like China's social credit to restrict taxes and other access unless a law bans it, asking why such a law is not unanimous.

Laments collapsing attention spans, citing statistics that the average TikTok user watches 59 minutes and 314 videos daily versus 40 minutes of YouTube.

He stayed silent early for lack of data but grew vocal seeing policy diverge from evidence, preferring to look like a fool than let a small group gain permanent unaccountable power.

Cites Tamir Rice and no-knock police raids as bureaucratic mistakes with no accountability under sovereign immunity, tying it to eroding freedoms and government contempt for citizens.

Frames the crisis as a culture war between an enlightened ruling class and ordinary people who just want to work and raise families, being told that normalcy itself is a threat.

The US is 50 sovereign states, many defecting from lockdowns without apocalypse because vaccines work, and adding 40 percent artificial to 35 percent natural immunity yields herd immunity.

Invokes personal accountability, noting society lets people drink and smoke despite drunk-driving crashes and stage-four lung cancer, so an unvaccinated person's choice could carry liability if they spread it.

Recounts his first false-and-misleading Facebook label for sharing a video by John Campbell, a 40-year public health veteran with a million subscribers, calling algorithmic censorship deeply wrong.

Closes warning that if this continues society will reach a breaking point and fall apart, promising to keep speaking out until there is a political resolution.